Container Transport Forecast
Client
Partners
The problem
SME truck companies involved in import/export transport processes from and to the Port of Barcelona didn’t have information about their transport forecast for the short-medium timeframe.
Knowing in advance the number of trucks that will be necessary in future periods is crucial to improve the efficiency and planning of containers that need to be transported by truck, especially for small and medium transportation companies.
The solution
Mosaic Factor’s solution for PIONEERS demonstrates a Containers Transport Forecast for SMEs that are working in the Port of Barcelona ecosystem to improve the efficiency and planning of containers that need to be transported by truck.
Using ML techniques, the solution forecasts the truck movements at the Port of Barcelona based on inbound and outbound data available in the Port Community System.
Fleet optimisation
Our tool proposes a work plan for the next working day optimising the fleet considering business rules (OTs assigned to each company) and preferences defined by the traffic planner. All transport orders are automatically assigned to a truck/driver efficiently, showing the route proposed to the driver.
The system predicts the OTs that are assigned to freelancers and the ones that cannot be covered internally and need to be subcontracted to external transport companies.
Prediction of demand visualisation
SMEs in charge of truck transport around the port area need to know in advance how many transport orders will be received in the following days to organise their fleet and contract additional freelance drivers if necessary. This issue is solved by seeing the prediction of demand for the next period (next week).
The data
To promote the development of the two tools presented in this case, PORTIC has enabled an API with access to specific data from the Port Community System, limited to the essential information of the two collaborating transport companies involved in the projects.
- For the fleet optimisation tool, the technological solution from Mosaic Factor is based on the evolution of the VROOM (Vehicle Routing Open-source Optimisation Machine) tool, an open-source solution specialized in the challenge of the Vehicle Routing Problem and in other complex route optimization scenarios.
- For the demand prediction tool, Mosaic Factor has tested several predictive models to identify the most efficient one. Ultimately, the winning model, which performed best, was the Stochastic Gradient Boosting Model, which has demonstrated high accuracy in predicting weekly aggregated demand, both for import and export flows.
Results
The Container Transport Forecast solution for the Port of Barcelona has generated the following benefits:
- Prediction of the trend (increase or decrease) of transport orders one week ahead.
- Reduction of road time and distance in executing transport orders.
- Automation and reduction of manual work in assigning transport orders.
- Environmental benefits.
Mosaic Factor is currently working on some KPIs to compare manual processes versus the results of the tool. The following iterations are planned:
- Fleet optimization for time slots instead of the previous day.
- Adding port ecosystem data to demand forecasting.